Deal flow, fund performance, exits
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The S&P 500 AI Trap, Kalanick’s Atoms, and PE’s Debt Reckoning
Passive indexing is now an active risk, forcing a return to 'Atoms-based' alpha and debt-free PE.
150 Million Barrels Lost: Global Economy Nearing Recession
Geopolitical instability is reordering global markets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already stopped millions of barrels of oil flow, and a parallel fertilizer crisis threatens food security. This isn't a future risk; it's a present...
China’s 90% AI Target, Dalio’s 600% Debt Warning, and the PE Niche Play
The smartest money is now specializing, not just in sector or geography, but in deal structure and operational playbook—because everyone knows the 2x multiple expansion days are over. This isn't just theory; it's a playbook for portfolio company...
The 20% Efficiency Trap: Calacanis on SaaS Decay & Sundheim’s 5-LLM Bet
AI is decimating software valuations but creating massive, concentrated opportunities in foundational models. Traditional SaaS faces existential threats, while private capital chases a few dominant LLM players.
The ‘Unnatural’ Alpha: Pacific Avenue's Carve-out Play and the 40% Unicorn Gap
This week, we dive into the "unnatural owner" playbook, the "SaaSpocalypse" driven by AI, and why 40% of private unicorns are a ticking time bomb. Plus, learn how strong reputations translate to $7 trillion in shareholder value.
29,000 Companies Stuck: PE Exit Bottleneck Worsens
The long-anticipated "normalization" of private markets might not be happening. Instead, we're witnessing a structural shift with 29,000 unsold companies, representing $3.6 trillion in unrealized value, and holding periods often exceeding five years. This isn't a temporary blip.
'Pro Forma EBITDA Madness': 56% of Deals Unsellable
The private equity market is facing an unprecedented liquidity drought, with over half of companies failing to sell. The culprit isn't high valuations, but "pro forma EBITDA madness," leading to low DPIs and frustrated LPs.
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